Will The SNCC Strategy Work?

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Will The SNCC=20 Strategy Work?

Editorial by David=20 Smith

Errata: Yesterday I overestimated the number of Dreamcast = pre-orders in=20 this country by a factor of five. I need an editor, man. Except, = wait a=20 minute, I am an editor, aren't I? Argh...=20

That's sort of relevant to this piece because it's an = indication of my=20 horrible grasp of the state of things these days as regards the = videogame=20 industry. I'm not half the deranged news-hoover I used to be when = I was=20 out at school with nothing better to do in my spare time than = abuse UNC's=20 beast of a net connection, and as such I'm not in top = prognosticating=20 condition. But where Fernando commands (this piece was his idea), = I shall=20 go.=20

See, he evidently wants to know (or thinks you want to know, or = something like that) whether or not Sega's current marketing plans = can=20 pull the Dreamcast out of the pit in Japan. Make no mistake, it's = in quite=20 a pit. Sega has at this point (to be precise, by the end of May a = week and=20 a half ago) moved one million Dreamcast consoles in Japan, missing = its=20 original target date to do so by two months, they have yet to = release a=20 game that can sell systems on its own (a la Final Fantasy VII), = they've=20 been hurt by delays of multiple key titles, and already = commentators the=20 world over have pegged the Dreamcast as a repeat of the Mega = Drive's=20 lackluster showing in its home country.=20

This, to be honest, isn't so surprising. The Dreamcast launched = with=20 sod all except for a rushed port of Virtua Fighter 3. Sonic = followed close=20 enough after the launch, but it too showed the shortness of its=20 development schedule, on top of which Sonic isn't as popular in = Japan as=20 he is in the West anyway. The console's vaunted modem couldn't do = anything=20 but browse the web (slowly) until two months after its release, = and to=20 date there's only one game that does anything especially = interesting with=20 it. Speaking of "only one," there's also only one RPG to play on = the=20 console, one which didn't receive any unusually enthusiastic = reviews. And=20 the last A-list title exclusive to the system, Sonic, shipped in = December.=20 Since then, all the DC's best games (Power Stone, Marvel vs. = Capcom, House=20 of the Dead 2, Sega Rally 2, Dynamite Deka 2, Get Bass...) have = been ones=20 that you could play at an arcade for a couple of bucks, instead of = at home=20 for a couple of hundred.=20

The underlying problem is simple to express. Assuming you're = not the=20 sort of person who's gripped with the desire to buy a new system = as soon=20 as it ships, what was the point of buying a Dreamcast in Japan = this last=20 year? Figuring in the cost of a VMU and games, setting yourself up = with=20 the thing could run you close to four hundred dollars. A similar=20 Playstation setup would cost half that, the Playstation has the DC = beat by=20 a long shot in terms of the breadth and depth of its software = library, and=20 the Dreamcast just doesn't do enough _new_ things at this point to = warrant=20 the extra expense, especially if you've already got a Playstation = (and who=20 doesn't?).=20

So this sorta segues nicely into what Sega has to do to sell = their=20 system. The thing has to cost less, it has to have a better = software=20 library, and it has to do cool stuff that the other guy doesn't. = And that=20 segues nicely into New Challenge '99, the marketing shindig held = by Sega=20 last Tuesday, from whence all manner of big news issued.=20

Biggest things first: the console is now cheaper. Starting June = 24, a=20 new Dreamcast will now cost you about US$165 in Japan, compared to = US$245=20 at launch. Remember, though, that that isn't the "real price." = It's=20 worthless without a VMU and a game, which kicks up the price to = $250,=20 until you figure in the other half of the price-cut campaign. Four = of the=20 five launch titles, plus Sonic, will have their prices lowered to = about=20 sixteen dollars for a week in June to accompany the permanent = console=20 price drop. Now, I doubt many copies of July, Godzilla, and Pen = Pen=20 Tri-Icelon will sell for even that little, but Virtua Fighter 3 = and Sonic=20 Adventure are another matter entirely. They're the two = currently-available=20 cames which were conceived as system sellers, and I can see them = selling=20 systems for that cheap. Assuming the game in question is one of = the=20 bargain titles, a new Dreamcast setup during that week will just = be twenty=20 or thirty dollars more than a comparable Playstation outfit.=20

There is still, however, the question of the Dreamcast's = software=20 library. To be perfectly honest, even with the lower price, even = with the=20 upcoming titles in development, if I were the hypothetical guy = buying a=20 new console in Japan right now, I still might buy a Playstation = simply=20 because the Dreamcast hasn't yet got a library big enough, and = original=20 enough, to support itself. It's got one RPG, a few above-average = original=20 titles, and a heap of arcade ports that can't sell home consoles = when you=20 can still play them for quarters. Mind you, SNCC showed that = things are=20 looking up in this regard. Sega's Project Ares RPG will help push = the=20 system, Baldur's Gate will bolster both its RPG and net-capable = lineups,=20 and Grandia 2 should be a big hit if reports of it shipping next = year are=20 accurate (they probably aren't, but I'll remain optimistic for the = nonce).=20

Anime licenses were one of the Saturn's notable assets, and = judging=20 from the titles being pushed at New Challenge they should aid the=20 Dreamcast as well. The Cyber Team in Akihabara (which is evidently = quite=20 the hot property) and Super Invention Boy Kanipan games should do = quite=20 well. Nadesico's impact I'm not so sure about, because I haven't = enough=20 direct knowledge to gauge the popularity of the license at this = point. It=20 would have been big last year, when the movie was playing in = theaters=20 (with Slayers Gorgeous, no less; why don't we get bills that good = over=20 here?), but I'd guess it's cooled a trifle in the interim.=20

The modem, I think, is the principle area where Sega hasn't = been able=20 to deliver on the hype. It's a pity, because it's the principle = asset that=20 it has and the competition doesn't have, and yet Sega's hardly = done=20 anything with it. The DC is a cheap Internet solution, yes, but = it's also=20 a deuced annoying one, and the only game so far with net play is = Sega=20 Rally 2. Luckily, New Challenge shows more support coming along = soon.=20 Virtual On 2 is an arcade port, but the home conversion will = hopefully be=20 as significant an improvement on the original as Sega Rally 2. = Similar=20 caveats may apply to Baldur's Gate (it's a PC port), but it seems = to me=20 that the success of PC ports to consoles wouldn't be as hampered = as that=20 of arcade ports. I haven't any statistics close at hand, but I = think it=20 would be safe to say that there's less crossover between PC and = console=20 game players as there is between arcade and console enthusiasts. = Anyway,=20 those are just two more titles, but each significantly broadens = the=20 Dreamcast's lineup of net-capable games. First there was just a = racing=20 game, soon there will be a racer, a fighter, and an RPG, and all = of them=20 are superb specimens of their genres.=20

None of the above are system-selling games, though. They're = nice to=20 have if you happen to already have the system, but they're not = enough to=20 convince non-enthusiasts to support the system in its early days. = The one=20 real, bona fide potential killer app being promoted at New = Challenge, the=20 game that in theory will be beyond the capabilities of the = competition,=20 was, of course, Shen Mue.=20

Hm. Shen Mue, as I've said a couple of times before, is an = irritating=20 game to try and speculate about. I played what there was to play = at E3,=20 and I've read all the hype coming from both the press and Sega = directly,=20 but I still have no idea what the final product is going to be = like.=20 Whenever I try and formulate some sort of conclusive statement, I = come up=20 with nothing but generalities based on surmise and hearsay. For = example,=20 I'm pretty sure that it'll eventually be a good game. Yu Suzuki is = one of=20 the best at what he does, and despite the repeated delays Sega's = powers=20 that be continue to give the game the marketing push of a = lifetime,=20 indicating that they deem it worthy of such support. But, ack, = what will=20 make the game good? Exactly why is it being hailed as the = console's best=20 hope? Will there be anything at all to do with the bloody thing = except tap=20 buttons on cue and play Space Harrier? And to top it all off, will = it ship=20 before I'm old enough to rent a car?=20

Ahem. I would say that the New Challenge strategy as it relates = to Shen=20 Mue (i.e. betting the farm on it) is sound providing that the = game's=20 developers can deliver as promised by the current release date. = Already=20 the marketing lead-up to the game's release seems unnaturally = long. If I=20 read things correctly (red flag there; it means I'm probably = wrong), the=20 push is going to last all the way from midsummer up to the end of = October.=20 The game may wind up over-hyped as it is; any further delays and = it=20 replaces D2 as the favored punch-line to gallowsy release date = gags.=20

So what do I think the New Challenge strategy will do for Sega? = I'll be=20 conservative and say they'll probably do better in 1999 than they = did the=20 last time around. Of course, it has probably already occurred to = most of=20 you that it would take a highly active imagination to conceive of = a worse=20 year than 1998. But seriously, I envision the Dreamcast hitting = its stride=20 in Japan this fall and winter. If Shen Mue does ship in October, = and it=20 does turn out to justify the marketing insanity surrounding it, it = should=20 set things in motion. The hardware will be reasonably priced at = that=20 point, there will be enough titles in the library for new owners = to have=20 someplace to go after Shen Mue, and while the Playstation 2 hype = will be=20 going full speed ahead, the Playstation itself will be looking = distinctly=20 inferior.=20

Before I start sounding like I'm getting paid to write this, = though,=20 let me clearly state that I don't see the Dreamcast splitting the = market=20 evenly with Sony, let alone taking over first place. The = Playstation is=20 too entrenched and its successor too powerful (although I reserve = the=20 right to amend the latter pending the outcome of the fall TGS). = Does that=20 mean that Sega is doomed? Certainly not. The Genesis' performance = in this=20 country and the Saturn's performance in Japan proved that you = don't have=20 to be number one to be a success. All you need is reasonably = priced=20 hardware and a solid library of games to play on it. The Dreamcast = should=20 fulfill both requirements in Japan by the end of this year. =

davidf@seganet.com

=20

" I'll be = conservative=20 and say they'll probably do better in 1999 than they did the = last=20 time around. "