The
Wall Street Journal today had a rather long article on the
next gen systems and how they are going to compete vs. PC's.
It has some nice quotes from some industry people, and has
SquareSoft's estimate for the budget for the Final Fantasy
game for the PS2, $40 million. To make things simple, we are
just going to quote The Wallstreet Journal's article as
written by Dean Takahashi.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sony Corp. hopes to drop a bomb on rival makers of
video-game systems next year. But in the coming war, the
personal computer may take the most collateral damage.
For the first time, video-game machines are expected to
decisively trump the performance of general-purpose PCs. As
game developers and publishers ponder where to allocate their
scarce resources, the power shift could cause a software
stampede.
The transition begins a week from today with the planned
U.S. launch of Sega Enterprise Ltd.'s Dreamcast console, the
first of a new generation of game systems that handle 128 bits
of computer data at a time, compared with 32 or 64 bits with
previous machines. The more bits, the more realistic the games
can be. The two market leaders, Sony and Nintendo Co., have
scheduled their own 128-bit systems for fall 2000.
Of all the machines, it is the forthcoming Sony system that
has drawn the most oohs and aahs from programmers and artists
who have seen prototypes. That system, informally labeled
PlayStation 2, has special-purpose circuitry that is expected
to allow much more lifelike image quality.
The prototype programs Sony has shown look little like the
cartoons or Lego-block characters of current games. Animated
people look almost human, with hair blowing in the breeze or
their faces vividly reflected in pools of water. When trees
sway in the wind, the leaves move about individually, much
like in movies.
"The Sony system is going to be so sweet," says Brett
Sperry, president of Electronic Arts Inc.'s Westwood Studios
division, creator of the popular "Command & Conquer"
series of games. "It's now the coolest thing around for
programmers."
Adds Bobby Kotick, CEO of Activision Inc. in Santa Monica,
Calif., "The Sony console is getting the attention of our PC
developers, even the hard-core ones."
Long before the public votes with its wallet on a new game
machine, the game developers have to place their bets. With
costs rising 30% to 40% for the new generation of games, and
development time frames stretching beyond 18 months, the
choice of hardware platform is often a make-or-break gamble.
Analysts believe that Sega will do well for six months to a
year, but No. 1 Sony and No. 2 Nintendo are expected to
eventually hold their market positions in the 128-bit field.
Sony announced its machine in March and began distributing
prototype systems to developers this month. It will disclose
its key game publishing partners Sept. 17.
Ken Kutaragi, chief executive officer of Sony Computer
Entertainment Inc. in Tokyo, predicted that the machine's
performance would top the fastest PCs. He estimated the
machine will have 200 times the graphics power of Sony's
original PlayStation, and 10 times the power of Sega's
machine.
"For the first time, the high-end PC developers have a real
choice about where to put their resources," says Phil
Harrison, vice president of research and third-party developer
support at Sony's U.S. unit.
To be sure, the versatile PC isn't going to die and it
often doesn't even compete with game consoles, says Kevin
Bachus, a software executive at Microsoft Corp. Online gaming
is driving the PC market into innovative areas where the
consoles have yet to go, says Jason Rubinstein, games
"evangelist" at Intel Corp.
"We're painfully aware we have to make the PC better," Mr.
Rubinstein said at a recent game conference. "But we have a
lot of initiatives in place that tell us it's going to be the
premiere platform for digital entertainment."
The PC traditionally appeals to older game players, who
like strategy games, and to women, who prefer the greater
variety of PC titles beyond violent action games. And the PC
is getting a shot in the arm from a burst of new sales this
year to people who are taking advantage of "free PC" offers.
For those reasons, some people think the PC will have enough
momentum to retain huge numbers of loyal gamers.
"The impression that the PlayStation 2 will be light years
ahead of the PC is really incorrect," says John Carmack, the
top programmer at "Quake" developer Id Software Inc. in
Mesquite, Texas. "We're going to continue with the PC because
it will move ahead of the consoles and it gives us complete
freedom to make the kind of games we want."
But console games, which offer a more social experience
than PCs, are gaining share. PC entertainment titles made up
34% of the $6.2 billion in revenue for the game industry in
1998, down from 40% of the market in 1997, according to NPD
Group in Port Washington, N.Y.
With all the uncertainty, game publishers are hedging their
bets. Interplay Entertainment Inc., Irvine, Calif., says it
will make a few Dreamcast titles but it will stay focused on
the PC market for about 70% of its revenue. The company
contends that PC software tends to grow steadily, where video
games are subject to phases of boom and bust.
"For us, the PC is a safe bet," says Brian Fargo,
Interplay's chief executive. "That said, it's a very difficult
time to figure out where development should be."
Before the PC, Sony must first contend with Sega. That
company expects to have 16 games ready Sept. 9, including the
long-awaited "Sonic Adventure" title. Peter Moore, vice
president of marketing of Sega of America, says Sega is on
plan to ship 1.5 million Dreamcast units by March. Once it
meets that goal, he says, game developers will have the
confidence to commit further resources to Sega. As many as 100
titles are expected by next year, including a game dubbed
"Shenmue," which has a budget of $30 million and is the latest
project of Sega's star developer, Yu Suzuki.
Sega's demos show that the Dreamcast is no slouch on
cinematic effects, including dazzling sunsets and cherry
blossoms blowing in the breeze. Charles Bellfield, a Sega
spokesman, also argues that the new design of Sony's machine
may make it a challenge to program.
Yet Sega's rivals have built bigger followings among
developers. More than 650 games have been released for the
PlayStation in the U.S. The Nintendo 64 has 165 titles, with
45 more expected this year; the company is hoping to exploit a
few blockbusters, including the forthcoming "Donkey Kong 64."
Electronic Arts, the largest independent game publisher,
has yet to support Sega and is instead working on numerous
PlayStation 2 titles.
The most ambitious Sony supporter is SquareSoft Corp., a
Japanese company that owns the popular Final Fantasy
role-playing games. The company spent $30 million on its Final
Fantasy VIII title, which will make its debut on the original
PlayStation the same day as the Dreamcast launch. Tomoyuki
Takechi, CEO of SquareSoft, predicts his company will spend
$40 million on a Final Fantasy title for the PlayStation 2.
Against such bets, the $2 million to $5 million budgets of
big PC games look puny.
"We see George Lucas and `Star Wars' as our competition,"
says Mr. Takechi.
-- Michael
Custer
Previous
-- Next
-- News
| 
