Editorials... "... IS IN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY" by J.M.Vargas Let the sports metaphors fly! One of the most overused cliche' expressions used by sports journalists whenever the playoffs for a professional sport begin to heat up (typically in the NFL), the term 'in control of their own destiny' applies to teams that have to win a decisive victory or score 'X' amount of points in order to move to their next championship match... and so on and so forth until the final showdown for a chance at 'the big game' is at hand. Like the St. Louis Rams and Indianapolis Colts this year (and the N.Y. Jets the year before), Sega has come back to life after a few lousy underperforming seasons with the money losing record of a beaten warrior (the Saturn) hampered by a career-ending injury too early in its promising life (ahem!), replaced by the promising fortunes of a talented and media-savvy rookie (the Dreamcast). With the performance stats to back its considerable pre-season preparation (5 million units sold around the world and climbing... except in Japan!), Dreamcast could have been the ticket to the promised land of balanced financial sheets and respectable market share. But Nintendo and Sony also are hungry team owners with aging 'A' caliber stars (N64 and PlayStation) on their way to Hall of Fame retirement, and their draft picks (Dolphin and the it's-almost-here-and-I-can't-wait PS2) threaten to stop the rocket-like ride Dreamcast has experienced by giving the sponsors (third-party developers) some second thoughts about putting their fortunes on the shoulders of an organization that has a reputation for fumbling the ball quite a few times in decisive regular-season matches (the last couple of years of the Genesis) and wasting valuable resources in long-term prospects that didn't pan out (GameGear, Nomad, 32X, Sega CD). One only needs to look at how the biggest sponsor of them all, the beer-company-with-horses-and-cute-chicks-in-bikinis-on-TV commercials (Electronics Arts), has treated the Dreamcast to see that this perception of an uncertain future isn't some magazine/internet conspiracy to bury Sega before it has a fighting chance, but a subtle hint of what the industry as a whole (and we as the clients that feed it) knows full well: SEGA IS NOT IN CONTROL OF ITS OWN DESTINY. Or is it? Sports metaphors aside (thank God, if he/she/it exists, because I felt for a second up there trapped in an episode of ABC's "Sports Night"), some facts are becoming more clear by the week about the long-term future of Dreamcast in the United States, Europe and Japan (I know it sucks that South America and the African/Australian/Antartica territories never get their proper due, but that's life under a one superpower world). Forget the 2000 season because (a) the games coming out are already on their way and new one's can't be designed under a year (unless they get rushed ala "South Park" for N64), (b) they're gonna be plentiful and really good (well, most of the one's Acclaim hasn't managed to tarnish yet) and (c) we're set for the best gaming we've ever experienced on five confirmed and rock-solid gaming platforms (PSX, PS2, Dreamcast, N64, GameBoy Color), one struggling for recognition (NeoGeo Pocket) and three potential wildcards (Wonderswan, GameBoy Advance, Dolphin). Dreamcast is here for at least another year with the good stuff, and it's doubtful many of us will be able to find either the time or the bucks to keep up with all of the "Metropolis Street Racing", "Shenmues", "Floigan Brothers", "Phantasy Stars", "NBA/NFL 2K1's", "RE: Code Veronicas", etc. coming out. It is what happens after Christmas of 2000 that worries me because it could signal either the entrenchment of Dreamcast as an AFFORDABLE AND ATTRACTIVE (TO GAMERS AND DEVELOPERS ALIKE) SECONDARY SYSTEM TO THE SONY/NINTENDO JUGGERNAUT, or the slow and painful descent into an 18 month cycle in which everybody knows that the emperor is speaks the truth loud-enough for the powers-that-be to start saving the women and children. That's exactly what happened with the Saturn after the Christmas 1996 season, when 'A' titles like "Fighters Megamix" couldn't even sell 100,000 copies in 1997 and Sega started working quietly and behind-the-scenes for potential replacements/upgrades for their failed 32-bit system, but kept a 'we'll fight it out until the end' public attitude that barely disguised the complete absence of product that sank 1998 into the pits ("Panzer Dragoon Saga" rocked though). It took until September of 1999 (almost three years!) for the fruits of these efforts to reach American shores, and that is just too freaking long for a company to expect their loyal and blind followers to be faithful to the brand; I love Sega and I treasure my Saturn, but I can't fathom anyone depriving themselves of PSX and N64 goodness throughout 1998 and 1999 for a self-whipping Dreamcast vigil. What am I saying? That, just because we're about to experience the second-generation of Dreamcast heaven, we shouldn't lose sight of some unpleasent FACTS that could prevent us from enjoying a fourth or fifth generation. FACT: Dreamcast has bombed in Japan, period. End of story. Even if a dramatic price cut across the board induces some last-minute shopping from the Japanese enthusiasts, the PS2 is almost here and EVERYONE there who can't afford one is thinking about getting one. When 'AAA' quality titles like "Soul Calibur", "RE: Code Veronica", "Sonic Adventure", "Shenmue" ($40 million!) and "Seaman" (!) don't move the hardware from the store shelves, what on Earth could possibly do??!! Approx. one of every two Japanese Dreamcast owners has one of those above-mentioned titles (50% market penetration), which means that there is plenty of room for growth IF something happens. But what? FACT: Despite the success of Dreamcast in Europe and America, Sega is still losing money because of the failure of Dreamcast in Japan and the general depression of the arcade market (especially in North America), still the lifeblood of the company. Selling as many Dreamcasts as Sega has is good for business, but those units better keep flying off shelves for the sake of debt reduction (and production cost recoupment). FACT: Sega is now more dependent than ever on the support of second and third-party developers to attract clients with the sports games ("NFL/NBA 2K") and franchises ("Resident Evil", "Street Fighter [whatever]") everybody wants; once upon a time Sega could single-handedly keep a system afloat with its own games (almost every game they ever ported to the Saturn is a classic), but that theory has been deflated by their less-than-stellar crop of initial Dreamcast titles ("VF3tb", "Sega Rally 2") and a couple of perplexing decisions from Sega of America (why isn't "Virtual On: Ontario Tangram" even announced for America?). FACT: the absence of the much-heralded Dreamcast Network six months into the system's American cycle, after years of pre-planning and quite a lot of hype (much of it of its own making), again pierces Sega's weakest armor: credibility. I'd rather have a quality online Network arriving late than one arriving early and buggy, but everyday that goes by without online "Chu Chu Rocket" tournaments on the internet is another day for people to wonder about the PS2 ports. FACT: EA and Square aren't developing for the system, and that means no "Madden", no "NBA Live", no "NHL Hockey", no James Bond game (hooray!), no "Final Fantasy", etc.; I personally can live without these two (only "FFVIII", "Sled Storm" and "Medal of Honor" rocked my boat in 1999), but their perpetual absence in the Dreamcast line-up is only a reminder that the system isn't a priority for the companies that the masses follow (take that as you will). And there are about five or six more FACTS that I had in mind, but by now I'm pretty sure you get my drift. IGN's premier site for Dreamcast news (after the one and only www.dcswirl.com of course! :-P) had an Editorial about this subject a couple of weeks ago, and I'd like to recommed it to you as additional reading for this MACKtrix column because it touches on many of these same points: http://dreamcast.ign.com/news/15068.html Sorry if all this seems like the worst-case scenario unfolding when things couldn't look more rosy for Sega's fortunes, but a sunny today shouldn't mean that some good planning and work can't go toward ensuring a competitive AND successful tomorrow. Yes, underneath my negativism I'm an optimist that feels and knows (yes, KNOWS) what Sega needs to do in order to not only be competitive with the Sony and Nintendo empires, but actually compete toe to toe with them and stand its own ground; talk is cheap I know, but that's what we columnists with our own self-agrandizing opinion of our own judgement (and too much time on our hands) do best. What Sega needs to do to compete with PS2 and Dolphin is begin to scrt... oops, look at the time! The Arizona/Michigan primaries are on, and CNN/MSNBC/Fox News are going live with the results! Sorry folks, gotta boogy! See you next week with the second part of "... is in Control of their Own Destiny" (hey, I'm a political junkie; sue me). Feeling ticked? E-mail us! sjvargas@concentric.net (J.M.Vargas) j.gray@katana-edge.com Joey G. shroom@katana-edge.com Brian G.